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Re-Offense Rate Drops in New CDCR Report

The rate at which registered citizens on parole commit a second sex offense has dropped to 1.8 percent according to a new report issued by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR). 

“The rate of re-offense for registered citizens on parole is an important fact for the public to know,” stated CA RSOL President Janice Bellucci.  “It debunks the myth that registered citizens ‘always’ re-offend.”

The report also noted a rise in parole violations from 86.9 percent to 88 percent.  Parole violations can be minimal including consumption of a single alcoholic beverage or the presence of a toy in a car or home.

In addition to parole violations, the CDCR report notes that registered citizens are returned to prison for new non-sex crimes at a rate of 7.3 percent and failure to register at 3 percent.  The total number of registered citizens covered by the report was 6,218.  

The CDCR report, Outcome Evaluation Report, is issued by the state agency on an annual basis.  Its purpose is to “provide new insights to policy-makers and correctional stakeholder that will be useful in moving the State forward with regard to efforts that increase public safety….”, according to CDCR Secretary Jeffrey Beard.

California Department of Corrections And Rehabilitation – 2013 Outcome Evaluation Report (p. 25)


Join the discussion

  1. Alienated

    Well I wonder if this study will make the news ? I am sure the information will be presented by the amount of parole violations in RSO’s on parole rather than the fact that re-offense of paroled RSO’s is down. We shall see if any news agency will publish these new CDCR reports. I for one think this is great news but it might get twisted and the hard liners will take credit for the decrease and use this as a victory for themselves.

    • JB

      The people we are dealing with live in a fact-free world. They only go by what their gut or their god tells them to do….very dangerous/ignorant/spiteful/hateful people.

  2. Sub

    1.2% for homicide. So close to being the lowest.

    • Jason Wilson

      I seem to read this as 1.8 OF PAROLEE sex offenders REARESTED… not 1.8 of parolee sex offenders that also reflect those also not re-arrested.

      If you looked at ALL parolees who discharge, who are also sex offenders.. then you would see that in fact, the recidivism rate is drastically lower than the 1.8 number they still want you to see.

      Aside from that, you have to also consider that Jessica’s Law probably has a lot to do with much of that 3 percent of those arrests that were “failure to registers”. After all, the study was seems to show everything AFTER Jessica’s Law was implemented.

      I do see this information as helpful, but not helpful enough for getting the point across.

      • Jason Wilson

        Also, i’d like to add that this probably is a biased report as well, since they want people to see that SINCE Jessica’s Law was implemented and GPS bracelet placed on all parolee sex offenders.. CRIME WENT DOWN. Unfortunately, this dirty tactic works well with the public.

        • Q

          So true Jason Wilson. They seem to be well practiced at making themselves look good; even when it’s not warranted.

      • Tim

        Hi Jason. 1.8% IS NOT the reoffense rate! I’ve tried to explain what you said about the reoffense rate of all released parolees, not just the percentage of the recidivists, and failed to get anyone to take note. The number is more like 1.2% (1.8% times about 70% total recidivists)actual reoffense rate. That is the number we should be using, because it is the rate derived from the TOTAL released from prison, not a percentage of those who recidivate, which is the 1.8%. In other words, if that pie had a piece representing those who don’t violate in any way, it would represent all parolees and be more accurate for our purposes. They are implying the sex offense rate is higher than it is.

  3. MS

    This is great information. It just needs to get out so people can see it and can become educated. Then they will be more able to come to their own conclusions based on facts not what is fed to them through the media. Any ideas on how we could do that?

    • Janice Bellucci

      California RSOL continues to educate the public including elected officials regarding the rate of re-offense. We have gone to Sacramento twice this year and will return on April 10 and 11 to lobby in support of AB 1640 and to explain once again why we need a tiered registry. Come join us! You are sure to learn a lot and have some fun, too.

  4. Tim

    I also note the the fail to register went down, as did non sex crimes amongst registrants. What did go up is the parole violations, maybe that is due to those idiotic GPS devises, “operation boo” and the fact that we are more closely scrutinized for any minor parole violations, than any other former offender class.

  5. B

    I think we need to be careful how we use this report. It shows a recidivism rate for RSO at almost 70% which is higher than any other kind of crime. 88% of those who return to prison are for parole violations. Many of the parole violations are petty and entirely inconsequential. But some of the violations might not be another crime, but indicate a real problem.

    I don’t believe we can objectively look at this report and say that the re-offense rate for RSO is 1.8%. There is not enough data in the report to say that. We know that of the 8,942 sex offenders released, 6,218 returned to prison within 3 years. 111 of those cases were for new sex offenses. What we don’t know is what happened to the others after they were released from parole. What happens after the extreme parole conditions end. That is the more credible number–which we don’t have.

    The 1994 DOJ study is a 10 year study over many states and sets the number at 5.3%, which I think is a much more credible number. Of course, there are so many variables with all these studies, a 3-4% error rate is probably baked into the study.

    The overall point is clear: All of the oppressive laws (Megan’s Law, Jessica’s Law, etc.) that shred the Constitution and make our lives miserable are borne of a myth. To actually reform sex offender laws (what a catchy phrase) we need to kill the myth. This report is a tool, but a tool with some limits.

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