[poffenderwatch.com – 5/30/18] [ACSOL is publishing this older article to reveal the inner workings of registrant categorizing software that may affect you] Excerpt from the article: FOCUS [software] uses complex predictive analytics to ana1yze more than 100 different risk factors on more than 1,000 variables found in a sex offender’s record, as well as other state, federal, and commercial data sources. The analysis then assigns a 1 to 10 score to each registered offender, with 10 signaling a higher likelihood to reoffend. For example, offenders who move multiple times…
Read MoreTag: Static 99
How ‘Pseudo-Science’ Turns Sex Offenders into Permanent Outlaws
[thecrimereport.org] A New York Appeals court has rejected the notion that risk prediction under the state’s Sex Offender Registration Act (SORA) should have a scientific basis. According to the July 2017 decision in People v. Curry, courts must not only adhere to a risk assessment instrument (RAI) that has been repeatedly exposed as pseudo-scientific humbug, they may not even consider a scientifically validated instrument such as the Static-99. It wasn’t the first time. For the 20 years since SORA was enacted, courts have used the RAI to classify individuals after…
Read MoreCalifornia Re-Offense Rates Revealed
The overall re-offense rate for registrants in California is 4.8 percent, according to a recent report issued by Dr. Karl Hanson and colleagues. Of that total, the highest re-offense rate is for transients who lack stable housing. The report also compared re-offense rates for registrants on parole and probation. The report found that registrants on parole have a higher rate of re-offense (6.1 percent) as compared to those on probation (4.3 percent). Additional findings in the report include: Hispanics have the lowest rate of re-offense (3.06 percent) as compared to…
Read MoreThese 10 Questions Can Mean Life Behind Bars
A short checklist called the Static-99 weighs facts about a sex offender’s past in order to predict the likelihood of future crimes. Many legal and scientific experts worry that the way the test is often used — to make high-stakes decisions about an individual’s liberty — is critically flawed. Full Article
Read MoreLocals Call California’s Sex Offender Registry Into Question
Sex offenders are required by law to register their name, photo and address online at meganslaw.ca.gov. A disclaimer on the website says The Department of Justice does not assess the specific risk that any convicted sex offender on the site will commit another offense. However, the website does have a Risk Assessment Score. Another disclaimer says that score determines the statistical probability that an offender will commit another sexual offense. Risk assessment scores for many of the sex offenders on the registry are currently left blank. Full Article
Read MoreEver have Your Fortune Told.
Human beings have the habit of wanting somebody to be omniscient In powers to predict the future. When you think of a fortuneteller you think of a Gypsy type woman in a dark room with a turbine on her head in front of a crystal ball. We know in our hearts that these people are charlatans, whether they use a crystal ball, tarot cards, numerology or our astrological signs. Why then should we put any more faith into forensic psychologists who disregard the limits of science by overstating the accuracy…
Read MoreThe Promise (and Perils) of Predicting Sex Crimes
Attorney-General Eric Holder’s August 1 speech criticizing the use of risk assessment in sentencing decisions may not lever the issue to the top of the policy agenda. But a new paper could revive the debate about the effectiveness of risk tools in evaluating the chances of recidivism among those convicted of sex crimes. A forthcoming article in the Arizona State Law Journal argues that state criminal justice systems which use risk assessment tools may overestimate sex offenders’ likelihood of committing another crime. That message may complicate the efforts of those…
Read MoreThe Field Validity of Static-99/R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tool in California
Policies that differentially apply to sexual offenders at different risk levels require defensible procedures for classifying offenders into risk categories. The current study examines the reliability and validity of Static-99 and Static-99R sexual offender risk assessment tools as implemented in the State of California. California is a valuable case study because it is a large jurisdiction that has devoted considerable resources to the implementation of risk tools. Download (pdf)
Read MoreStatic-99 “norms du jour” get yet another makeover
It would be humorous if the real-world consequences were not so grave. Every year, at a jam-packed session of the annual conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA), the developers of the Static-99 family of actuarial risk assessment tools roll out yet a new methodology to replace the old. This year, they announced that they are scrapping two of three sets of “non-routine” comparison norms that they introduced at an ATSA conference just four years ago. Stay tuned, they told their rapt audience, for further instructions on…
Read MoreStatic-99 developers embrace redemption – Sex offender risk plummets over time in community, new study reports
And now — drum roll — the authors of the most widely used actuarial tool for assessing sex offender recidivism are conceding that even sex offenders cross a “redemption threshold” over time, such that their risk of committing a new sexual crime may become “indistinguishable from the risk presented by non-sexual offenders.” Tracking a large group of 7,740 sexual offenders drawn from 21 different samples around the world, the researchers found that those who remain free in the community for five years or more after their release are at drastically…
Read More