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Early Jail Releases During Pandemic Didn’t Lead to Crime Spike: Study

[thecrimereport.org – 7/27/20]

A study of 29 U.S. cities has found no correlation between the early release of detainees from the cities’ jails due to COVID-19 fears and any increase in crime in those cities between March and May.

“The analysis confirmed that the amount by which a county changed their jail population wasn’t correlated with the amount of change in crime,” said the report by the American Civil Liberties Union, “Decarceration and Crime During Covid-19,” released Monday.

“We found no evidence of any spikes in crime in any of the 29 locations, even when comparing monthly trends over the past two years.”

The ACLU’s Analytics team looked for data on jail population and crime in locations with “the largest jail and overall populations,” using reported data from those 29 localities, which included Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles.

The researchers looked at “Part I” crimes only.

COVID-19 infection rates among prisoners have been 5.5 times higher than the U.S. population case rate, according to a recent study by the Journal of the American Medical Association.

The ACLU found that “nearly every county jail that we examined reduced their population, if only slightly, between the end of February and the end of April.”

Over the same period of time, researchers say that “the reduction in jail population was functionally unrelated to crime trends.”

“In fact, in nearly every city explored, fewer crimes occurred between March and May in 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019, regardless of the magnitude of the difference in jail population,” the report said.

The team said its findings were in line with recent reports that documented certain types of crime have gone down during the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring, which many have attributed to stay-at-home orders and decreased overall activity.

While political rhetoric may be putting the blame on early release from jails or prisons for a reported crime increase, no statistics have been released to support such claims.

Read the full article

 

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  1. w

    Yeah in San Bernardino da Jason Anderson and Sherrif MacMahon tried their scare tactics saying the zero bail policy and release of offenders put the community at risk.

    The usual “you need us” and “protect our community” stupidity that people constantly fall for. It’s almost like Anderson is just taking over the helm of former da Ramos’ similarly “victim based” platform. Wouldn’t that be nice for him to score another 4 terms playing the same old victim agenda!

  2. Max

    Duhhh !
    And just to let the World know eating more Cheerios on my part this past month did not affect my neighbors food costs!
    Oh ! And taking my dog for a walk past my local parks did not increase any dog bite victims…
    Nor did my undisclosed or un scheduled visits to friends, strangers or post offices and Banks etc…cause a series of unknown, unfounded and un related CATASTROPHIC Criminal EVENTS to occur in the town where i was born ..strictly based off my 1 time charge of course !
    I GUESS MY RICHTER
    RIDICULOUSNESS SCALE IS BROKEN OR CALIBRATED WRONG !!!
    Oh, better not give out my other ORDINARY MUNDAN HUMAN ACTIVITIES, LEST THE WHOLE WORLD WOULD SUFFER A PLATHORA of CRIME that would surpass all Horrors known to Mankind …So fear not ! I shall not suffer the little Children Nor Infuriate the Common Man with My Algorithms of Unleashed & Unlimited Mayhem and Hidden MASOCHISTIC MADNESS thereby tipping the Scales of Injustices deep into blackened Oblivion that none should ever recover from …
    Oh, ! Sorry !
    I must have slipped away from Reality on sweet morsels of my Hyper Fiction and Delusional Mass Hysteria
    With self righteous Ego and Warped/Inflated mindset of Justice…good thing i returned to my senses or i could be like the rest of Americans …LOST IN “La la Land”
    Good day i say…to the sane Americans …LOL !!!

  3. TS

    One can read what a Part I crime is defined as here: https://www.bjs.gov/ucrdata/offenses.cfm

    Given that offenses which would land someone on a sex registry is part of the aforementioned list of defined crimes, the peeps here in the forum have mentioned previously the tracking of such crimes for helping the argument which statistics have long showed of little recidivism. The data correlates with each other. Sooo…With the narrative being so scare tactic oriented today, this data set is good info to have to counter any argument that shows those being released are the problem. Unlike those who are living in a basement and coming out at night to cause chaos, hate, and discontent in society…

  4. RW

    It’s not about safety or crime or Covid. It’s about Money, keeping as many in prison as possible and the prison union as strong as possible, with more members employed and the prison corporations profitable. That. Is. All.

  5. Bo

    Yeeee. It only looked at Part 1 crime… that’s like murders n stuff. Part 1 crimes are murder, manslaughter, sex offenses, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and arson.

    Wonder why they dont include the rest?

  6. ditto

    I’m going to bet the revised registration policies due to covid-19 did not result in a crime spike as well.

  7. Saddles

    News about Donald Trump says it is what it is. I sort of said that same phrase in a different way when I met my PO about eight years ago only I said It is what it is untill it is what it ain’t. He looks at me and says whats that suppose to mean? Seems our president has all the answers about death with this virus. So who predicts today unless we have a fortune teller for president in any government.

    TS mentioned data and recidivism. RW mention’s money and even Max talks a bit about self-righteous in this game’s people play. If you want data look at what this virus is doing. Self-righteous, well look at the story of Job and if you need proof who is bowing down to who today in this different types of sex offenses. If thats the case than one time DUI and one’s license is gone for good or get a bus pass.

    Much of this is all about testing one over the other and yes government is using it the wrong way. They are suppose to be civil servants but are money hungery and greedy. Janice know’s what I mean. One wonders today is this world is falling apart little by little. So were is the wisdom or the underlying proof in this perdiction type scheme. I’ve only got two more years of this crap (holding breathe) to go and yes government is not so righteous in their God given golden rule principals to protect and serve. Lets face it who protects a fictitous person. One wonders who pretends via the internet today.

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