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CA: Assessing the Real Risk of Sexually Violent Predators: Doctor Padilla’s Dangerous Data [Paper]

[ – 7/16/18]


This Article uses internal memoranda and emails to describe the efforts of the California Department of Mental Health to suppress a serious and well-designed study that showed just 6.5% of untreated sexually violent predators were arrested for a new sex crime within 4.8 years of release from a locked mental facility. The Article begins by historically situating sexually violent predator laws and then explains the constitutionally critical role that prospective sexual dangerousness plays in justifying these laws. The Article next explains how the U.S. Supreme Court and the highest state courts have allowed these laws to exist without requiring any proof of actual danger. It then describes the California study and reconciles its findings with those of a well-known Washington study by explaining the preventive effects of increasing age. Finally, the Article explains how these results undermine the justification for indeterminate lifetime commitment of sex offenders

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Cool, cool. But does this pass the all mighty “Rational” Review Bases?

How our government, in the 21st century where we’re about to land on Mars, still passes laws solely based on “it sounds about right”, is beyond me. We might as well test for “pedo” gene by weighing a duck against the person.

Ah yes, good old Monty Python…

The US Government should be prosecuted and then forced to payout to the hundreds of thousands of families that have been VICTIMS of the illegal scheme known as the Registry. At the very least.

This is further evidence that Karl Hanson, as well as his “static” scams, cannot be trusted. For many years, SVP’s have been indefinitely held… often under the rationale given by the “statistics” of the “evidence-based” and “empirical” Static-99. As the old saying goes: “Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.” Even for UNTREATED people given the “SVP” designation, their actual recidivism is at 6.5% within 4.8 years. Yet the Static-99 estimated these same people to be 37% to 38%. In other words, this is an egregious overestimation of over 500%. Again, the Static-99 exaggerated recidivism… Read more »

After reading this report, two things I find deeply troubling: 1. State is concealing low recidivism data helpful to even SVPs; 2. Static-99’s absurd exaggeration for “high” scorers. “Minority Report” is exactly what the Static 99 is. I doubt making a -3 to 1 point correction helps much to make the Static 99R any better. Especially if the age correction isn’t current age, but “age at release” (think about how illogical this is… especially when people aren’t “static;” we aren’t rocks for Christ’s sake). Static 99R is one of the biggest things that doesn’t make sense about the tiered law.… Read more »

if the breathalizers had to turn over their coading as it was challenged in court why has the scam 99 not had to?

@Florida Sucks:
if the breathalizers had to turn over their coading as it was challenged in court why has the scam 99 not had to?
Because breathalyzers are used as evidence and “testimony” in a court of law. Therefore, a defense attorney is allowed to “cross examine” and inspect the source code.

Combine this study/paper with this one and what have we got?

The Scientific Study Condemned by Congress
By Ross Pomeroy
July 26, 2016

Great find ^ the American people can’t handle an inconvenient truth. God forbid the Victimhood crusaders see this. They’ll drop dead from the shock that not everyone falls within their narrative of being a ‘victim’ of something for life.

Great! Can this study be used successfully in court to strike down SVP label and civil commitment?

Probably not because facts aren’t relevant to “rational review”. I’m not being funny. Just stating a literal fact. Courts are more than happy to simply state it’s not their job to study such facts and just leave that up to the legislators, the very same people who care about facts even less.

Seems like the most likely course of using such information is long terms via electing new people who actually care about facts, and care about facts beyond the campaign without simply bowing down to public perception.

On the other side of the coin, the court cannot consider facts not in evidence. That is why there is so much more to preparing a case than filing the right forms on time.

So question for everybody the police department gave me 3 different answers. If I sign up for community college when do I register with campus pd when school starts or as soon as I sign up? Or when ? This is in California thank you

Look at the registration requirement pages you initialed that you should have gotten copies of when you registered. One should specifically talk about registering for taking classes at college. I believe its within a certain amount of days after you have officially been enrolled at the college to take classes, but one of the registration requirements will give you all the details.

I don’t know CA law, but most state a RC must register anywhere one is ENROLLED (vs. attending). To me that means the moment you’re accepted and have signed up for courses, the clock starts ticking. Aside from pride and sticking it to the man a little bit, what benefit is there in waiting? There’s certainly a harm if waiting too long…

I have been a community college student for awhile now in San Bernardino County. They always ask for my class schedule among the other usual things. Once I have registered for classes, I print that and visit campus police in a timely manner.

@ David, You register with the college PD the moment you’re enrolled. Your enrollment is evidence that you are now part of the college system. Bring your course schedule with you and a copy of your annual registration paperwork. If you’re under probation or parole, then bring those paperwork. If you’ve earned a 1203.4 (expungement), then bring a copy of that court order. Each college is different, so just bring everything to reduce the number of times you have to visit the college PD. Another point, when you do go to register with the college PD and there are people… Read more »


I would say read the law

I’ll also go out on a string and say the law will state attending or registered if it states attending then you do it when you attend; sell it say registered then do it upon registration.

It depends on the school. Be sure to check the campus safety department on their policy. I attended SF State, and they said register five days before classes start in August; this was done yearly until I graduated. Now I’m attending CSU East Bay. Again, registration before the official Fall start date, but I don’t have to register every year. The officer said that it wasn’t necessary to register every term. Just de-register once I complete the program. With both schools, I didn’t need to bring any paperwork. All I needed was my campus ID and driver license. The Campus… Read more »

Prior to enrollment, make appointment with campus police. It’s ridiculous because many time campus police are just security guards but that’s how it goes. It was pretty easy. Stupid but easy, good luck

Did anyone read the whole thing- OMG, the Department of State Hospitals has suppressed evidence and information and eventually access to files when asked by Dr. Padilla. I can’t believe no one has followed these allegations and brought some sort of suit to get them to open the information to the public. Are we not footing the bill for these hospitals? As far as I know, California spends nearly $235,000 per patient/inmate per year to run this hospital. You do the math. I don’t think Californians know that every time we vote for some ludicrous law, that we also have… Read more »

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