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ACSOL’s Online EPIC Conference: Empowered People Inspiring Change Sept 17-18, 2021


The Field Validity of Static-99/R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tool in California

Policies that differentially apply to sexual offenders at different risk levels require defensible  procedures for classifying offenders into risk categories. The current study examines the reliability and validity of Static-99 and Static-99R sexual offender risk assessment tools as implemented in the State of California. California is a valuable case study because it is a large jurisdiction that has devoted considerable resources to the implementation of risk tools. Paper

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Another very interesting article by Hanson. Be sure to read carefully and count all the may be’s, could have’s, should have’s, might be’s. I still do not think that a 10 question tool to predict recidivism is that accurate. I believe it’s like shooting a cannonball into a lake; you have to be more accurate than shooting into the ocean, but chances are you’ll hit water. What seems to be left out about recidivism risk are the most important factors like job, income, housing, family. They’re using past events to predict future behaviors. Once again, it’s like the blind man… Read more »

Below is my earlier comment on this test. It is more appropriate on this post. I’ll admit I have not read the report and probably won’t understand it, but the biggest factor to me is #1 – Age at release. Now I realize that this test is to be given at release from incarceration or beginning of probation? But that ship has sailed for so many, going back to 1947. How is it possible to go back in time and do this at the appropriate time? And regardless, a person changes with age. #1 is a 4-point swing. page 12:… Read more »

Another ‘paper’…???…from whom puttust (?) forth yet another ‘paper’ ..??…office of propaganda ..??…these are within custody parole tools…within parole.

I won’t be wasting my time reading something as ridiculous as a paper that purports to be able to judge the likelihood of someone committing a crime. What a waste of time and money. The soothsayer intelligentsia that penned this piece and all that believe in this kind of drivel are overlooking the one thing that has the ability to bring this whole “sex offender” scare to into focus and show what a monumental waste of time and $ the whole thing has been and is. That one thing is change. Change is a universal law. Nothing ever stay’s the… Read more »

I am not disputing or trying to make my own guesses as who is more likely to offend, but to make this point: If registration was truly just regulatory, it makes sense to use it (static99) rather than more subjective guidelines like how one feels about the crimes committed. Since registration is punishment, the argument for applying statistics to determine retroactive sentencing is like this: Say it is determined that people who have committed petty theft are 80% more likely to commit murder than any other former offender. Therefore, every petty thief having finished their sentence is required to go… Read more »

Hi Tim: It was really good meeting you the other day. Your comment makes allot of sense, but I’ll bet ya dollars to dimes there are allot of blue collar workers that aren’t above comitt6ing the same kinds of crimes that a plumber would commit. I still think the people that write this kind of stuff are fruitcakes with PhD’s (Piled High and Deep) because I haven’t ever heard of anyone that can predict the future. This kind of drivel is nothing more than speculation and conjecture at best. PS; Check out this site. I think you can use it… Read more »

Thank you Q. I’ll check out the site. Some lead services do background checks or specifically say they don’t want a convicted sex offender (con artists, burglars, theives, I guess that’s OK). I was denied lead service because of that once. Right now I need some strong backs. I believe there is still a tax credit for hiring a felon.

Hi Tim:

This one didn’t with me. I signed up two days back and they have already connected me with someone that want’s a bid. We’ll see if anything changes down the road. 🙂

Hi again Tim:

I forgot to tell you I shortened my last name; so it’s not really my last name. This site also tells you if a license is needed or not!

That’s great news. When I was on probation I got many leads through a lead service. Then it got really expensive. $30 dollars for a phone number of someone who wasn’t serious about having the work done. Then I put my daughter on salary and she networks with people to get jobs.

HI Tim:

This one cost’s about $4

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